Why you should be invested in oil right now

2021.10.27 23:22 Zestyclose_Ad_1566 Why you should be invested in oil right now

Great write up from Stansberry Research below:
How We'll Profit as the Oil and Commodity Booms Continue
You might think that you missed out on the upside in this market...
You might think – with the Texas rig count going from 100 to 250 in just over a year, and with the price of oil doubling – that there's no money left to be made in oil and commodities.
I can see why you would think that. It makes sense.
But before you throw in the towel, let me share a few key facts...
As recently as March 2020, Texas had more than 400 active oil rigs. And that was well below the state's roughly 900 active rigs in 2014.
Today, we are at 250 – a 70%-plus decline. With that as a frame of reference, you can see that you haven't missed this opportunity... not at all.
Look – this is what the start of a commodity-price run looks like. These booms can go on far longer (and soar far higher) than most people can imagine.
Meanwhile, investors don't care at all today about what has been happening in oil and commodities. I love it. Bitcoin, tech stocks, real estate – investors love plenty of things right now. But oil is not one of them.
This incredible sentiment setup tells me the upside is nowhere near over. The oil boom is just beginning. That means we could easily see oil break above $100 a barrel in the coming months. And our window to profit is still wide open.
This month, we'll dive into how you can take advantage of what's going on. We have a new recommendation that's perfect for this new oil boom.
Plus, we'll cover how it fits into the great commodity bull market that's taking place... and why that's giving us another opportunity to make triple-digit gains.
We have a lot of ground to cover. So let's get started with the crazy sentiment setup in oil right now. Here's my lead analyst Brett Eversole with that story...
A Contrarian Buy Signal From a Major Investment Manager By Brett Eversole, lead analyst, True Wealth
"ETF companies are not in the business of helping investors," J.C. Parets said on a recent episode of The Compound and Friends financial podcast.
He went on to explain...

ETF companies are in the business of giving investors what they want. If there's demand for an oil ETF, they're going to build one for you.
J.C. is a chartered market technician and the founder of All Star Charts, which shares analysis for financial professionals. His point is simple. But it's one most investors overlook...
It's easy to assume the companies that create exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are looking out for the folks who buy into them. But these firms are simply fulfilling market demand.
You can launch an ETF built around any sector or investment theme. If folks want to buy it, it's out there.
J.C. pointed to a couple of ETFs launched in 2006... the iShares U.S. Home Construction Fund (BATS: ITB) and the SPDR S&P Homebuilders Fund (XHB).
These two competing funds track the homebuilders sector. And they came to market near the peak of the housing boom... at a time when everyone wanted to bet on a spectacular bubble in home prices.
The problem was, the bubble was about to burst. XHB fell more than 80% in its first three years of existence. ITB fared even worse... It dropped nearly 90%. Take a look...
📷
Launching a homebuilders fund in 2006 was a terrible idea for investors. Anyone who bought at launch lost most of their capital in the years that followed. But iShares and SPDR didn't launch the funds because it would be great for investors. They did it because it was a great idea for them...
By May 2008, the two funds had brought in around $1.5 billion in assets. And that's despite the fact that prices had fallen by more than 50%.
Said another way... investors continued to pour money in at the worst possible time. And prices crashed as more and more cash flowed in.
This is why we often look at ETF shares outstanding to gauge investor sentiment. When money is pouring into a fund, it means investors want to own that idea. And when money is flowing out, they want nothing to do with it. So watching the number of shares outstanding is a great way to find contrarian opportunities.
Watching when new ETFs launch turns out to be a similarly useful tool... It means ETF providers see a chance to make a lot of money. They don't care if the high demand for their new product is really a warning sign.
And that's just one side of the contrarian equation. As J.C. pointed out, the opposite is also true...
If there's no demand for an ETF, they shut them down. And they have an uncanny ability to do that just when you need them most.
J.C. noted that the only coal stock ETF – the VanEck Vectors Coal Fund (KOL) – shut down last year... right before thermal coal futures soared 1,000%.
Again, no one cared about coal stocks. So VanEck closed the fund... But investors sure wish that it didn't. That was the perfect time to own those stocks.
Now, a similar opportunity is setting up. That's because the VanEck Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas Fund (FRAK) shut down last Friday. And it's the perfect example of J.C.'s idea in action...
The fund held a basket of companies involved in fracking and oil-sands operations. It launched in 2012, after the price of oil had roughly tripled off its 2009 low.
Now, to be fair, FRAK did perform well for a couple of years. But it peaked in 2014, alongside oil prices... and crashed roughly 90% to last year's lows. Take a look...
📷
It's the same pattern. FRAK launched near the top for oil and oil stocks. And now it's de-listed... just when we need it most.
As you see on the right side of the chart, the fund had soared from its 2020 bottom. It was up around 300%. And as Steve noted above, that has everything to do with the boom we've seen in oil prices.
Oil recently hit seven-year highs and rose above $80 a barrel. In Texas – where many fracking companies operate – we've seen the number of oil rigs rise from 100 to 250 today. But that's still a far cry from the all-time high of 900 rigs in the state.
What this all means is that oil is absolutely booming... But it can continue booming from here. This bull run ain't over yet!
Investors don't seem to care, though. No one's putting money into the fund. So, VanEck closed it last week. And importantly, they didn't do it because investors shouldn't own those companies... They did it because it was a better business move for them.
In short, this sector has been left for dead despite the boom in prices. And the negative sentiment toward energy stocks isn't unique to FRAK, either. If we look at shares outstanding for a similar oil and gas investment, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund (NYSE: XOP), we see the same thing. Take a look...
📷
Shares outstanding for XOP have gone nowhere. They now sit near the lowest level we've seen since 2015. Yet the fund's price has soared... up more than 200% since last year's bottom.
This all tells a fascinating story...
Oil prices have jumped to seven-year highs. And that means oil companies can make money more easily than they have in years. These stocks are soaring as a result.
Meanwhile, investors want nothing to do with oil stocks. FRAK has closed, and new money isn't flowing into similar funds to take advantage of the opportunity.
This is an incredible setup. Perception isn't matching up with reality. And we want to buy a basket of oil and gas companies to take advantage of it.
Now, FRAK would have been a great way to make this bet. But the fund closed last week.
We also already own oil-services stocks through the VanEck Vectors Oil Services Fund (NYSE: OIH). That fund has done darn well – up 66% since we bought last November.
But this boom is nowhere near over. We want to own the companies that are finding and producing the oil... the ones that make use of oil services to get it out of the ground.
Fortunately, XOP, which we looked at above, holds those exact companies. It's darn similar to FRAK as well. Just look at its performance versus FRAK since the start of the year...
📷
These two funds don't hold the exact same companies. XOP's bets on oil and gas are more conventional than FRAK's. But there's plenty of overlap... And as the chart above shows, the two funds tracked each other closely this year.
XOP is a great way to profit as energy stocks rise. With oil at seven-year highs, it's an obvious bet. But the rest of the investing world doesn't seem to realize it. They aren't jumping in headfirst... They're completely ignoring this booming part of the market.
That's our opportunity. And I urge you to take advantage of it.
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Submitted October 27, 2021 at 09:22PM by Hobojo153 https://ift.tt/3GuGeGb
via /teslamotors ---- Content:
So I've been seeing a lot of people talking about their experiences in very hyperbolic ways, good and bad, but I feel like a lot of the bad is from misaligned expectations.Having now used the beta for a while and driven hundreds of miles on all my daily routes, and being very satisfied with it despite its problems I though I'd share why I feel that way. In doing so I hope to help others who have either just gotten or will soon get the beta have the best experience.First and foremost remember that despite the name this is NOT FSD. This is City Streets, and a beta at that. The goal with this step is not to make your car autonomous, but to enhance its existing capabilities to be much more useful off highway. Think of it as NoA for off highway.With that expectation I suspect you will have a much better time dear reader, because it will affect how you interact with the system.For example: Rather than expecting the car to simply get you from point A to B without your input, think of it as trying to reduce your workload. With turns from stops I can focus on looking for cars and making sure the car waits for and gets the right gap rather than worrying about creeping into someone coming the other way. With turns off roads I can focus on making sure the car gets the angle right rather than worrying about braking.​What AP did for going straight, this does for taking turns. It will mess up, but the point isn't that it will do things for you, its that you can focus on making sure it does it right rather than doing it right yourself.​If you felt comfortable using public AP and knew how to handle it well, you'll be fine. The mental workload is honestly no worse. (Hell for me personally, the roads, and amount of turns I take, it's less) That said, roads where you couldn't use AP before can be rough. Unmarked roads in particular require attention as it likes to hug the center until there's a car coming and it's relatively close. Thing is, if markings fade or are washed out by the sun it can treat them the same too.But so long as you watch out, and put in the energy you're really supposed to be putting in with public AP you'll be okay. And as long as you remember that this is supposed to be NoA off highway, you'll have a good time.​Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
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